by Gudrun Hutchins

“China and the Quad” is the last topic we will cover in the Great Decisions Series.  We encourage you to join us!

This series has taken us out of our comfort zones and encouraged us to learn more about a variety of topics.  Some people have attended all sessions, but each time we have a handful of newcomers.  Please consider dropping in at this last event.  Julie Mackaman facilitates the discussions, which have been cordial and enthusiastic.  Most participants do some reading before each event, usually from the Great Decisions Briefing Book. Non-circulating copies are available at the reference desk of the Bennington Free Library. This month, you are welcome to read the summary below instead of or in addition to the chapter in the briefing book, as it provides current  information.

 The Quad, composed of the United States, Australia, India, and Japan is not a formal alliance. Still the group has intensified its security and economic ties as tensions with China increase.

The Quad, officially the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, is a group of four countries that originally worked together during the rescue operations after the Indian Ocean tsunami of 2004. But today, the countries – all democracies and vibrant economies – work on a far broader agenda which includes tackling security, economic, and health issues.

The Quad is a loose grouping rather than a formal alliance. Japan initially emphasized the democratic identity of the four nations, while India seemed more comfortable emphasizing functional cooperation. Convened under the mantra of promoting a “free and open Indo-Pacific,” the four countries have become more aligned in their shared concerns about China’s increasingly assertive behavior in the region and are willing to define a constructive agenda of cooperation. Japan, especially, needs open sea lanes to sell its products. All four countries participated in joint navy exercises in 2020.

The Indo-Pacific spans two oceans and several continents. In 2019 $1.9 trillion worth of US trade passed through the region. This year, 42% of the world’s exports and 38% of global imports are expected to pass though the Indo-Pacific according to a recent UN report.

A year after President Xi took office, China started building – and increasingly militarizing – artificial islands throughout the contested waters of the South China Sea. It has increased its military posturing toward Japan, sending Chinese coastguard vessels into waters around the contested Senkaku Islands and flying warplanes into the airspace above.

Early in the pandemic, China imposed a flurry of trade sanction on Australia after Canberra called for an independent investigation into the origins of Covid-19. At the same time Chinese and Indian soldiers clashed in their deadliest conflict in forty years on the disputed Himalayan border between India and China.

Leaders in all four Quad countries have become more aligned due to their concerns about China’s increasingly assertive behavior and are more willing to define a constructive agenda of cooperation. The four leaders have met twice in person and twice virtually since President Biden has been in office. The last meeting was in Tokyo on May 24, 2022. The Quad leaders have formed working groups on COVID-19 vaccines, climate change, technical innovation, and supply chain resilience.

It is worth noting that China and India each contain approximately 18% of the planet’s population, partly due to the early cultivation of rice. The United States ranks third with a population of 4.2%. Japan contains “only” 1.6% of the world’s population, but has the third largest GDP after the United States and China. India ranks fifth or sixth in GDP depending on the specific year. Australia ranks lower in both population and GDP, but its continued existence as a viable democracy depends on a free and open Indo-Pacific.

As Beijing has grown more distant from the West and its allies, it has moved closer to Moscow. But their “no limits” partnership has become more of a liability for China as Russia’s unprovoked aggression against Ukraine draws global outrage.

That the “no limits” partnership between President Xi and Present Putin continues was made clear by the following events associated with President Biden’s Asia trip:

Japan’s Ministry of Defense announced on May 24 that six Chinese and Russian strategic bombers flew near the Japanese archipelago ‒ an apparent bid to warn against the Quad summit held the same day. The two Xian H-6 bombers were spotted flying over the East China Sea and the Sea of Japan along with two Russian Tu-95 bombers, from the morning until afternoon of May 24. Later on, two different H-6 bombers and the same two Russian Tu-95 bombers flew through the Miyako Strait between the Japanese islands of Okinawa and Miyakojima to enter the Pacific Ocean from the East China Sea. In addition, one Russian electronic intelligence aircraft was spotted flying over the Sea of Japan on the same day. Fighter aircraft of the Japan Air Self-Defense Force scrambled in response to the flights. No Chinese or Russian aircraft violated Japanese airspace.

South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff announced that on May 23 two Chinese H-6 bombers and four Russian warplanes, including two Tu-95 bombers, entered South Korea’s air defense identification zone without notice, but did not violate the nation’s territorial air space. This was the same day that President Biden was meeting with South Korean leaders.

Biden’s attempt to build solidarity with Japan, Australia, and India is a dramatic shift from an isolationist foreign policy to one that values alliance-building. The Quad alliance not only restricts China’s dominance of the Indo-Pacific, it also promises to give the US support in defending Taiwan’s independence.

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